Walkie Talkie Die Hard

As we sit and still wait for a new trade to set up, the H1 chart does not look so good.   It's not going in the direction that makes us want to take a trade.. BUT, looking at the D1, we see the truth of the matter: We are still in a normal cycle.  Still progressing downward, but riding the ebb and flow of the trend. We're looking for a downward signal, and from there we can take a slightly oversized position to bring in a few extra PIPS. On a follow-up note.  As you recall from earlier posts, I noted a difference between two accounts with regards to the spread.  After a lot of head scratching, the account with the better spread is leveraged 50:1 while the account with the larger spread is 20:1.  I had thought I changed both accounts to be the same, but these were set up some time ago.    To change the spread on the 20:1 I am instructed to open a new account.  Why?  Unfortunately we never got that far into the conversation. Regarding mark...

  Sometimes it seems like the world is out to get you. We were REALLY hoping for a busy trading week.   Reality is that so far its not. We had one trade yesterday morning, but last night was a bust.... NO TRADE. I stay up, set alarms, and watch for the right setup.                                                                                 < why don't you make an EA for that? > Sure, great question....  Answer is simple: Because you spend all of your time fixing a robot when things go wrong (and you better believe they will) instead of making money. We're here to make money not excuses.   Were here to not repeat the same 'ole rhetoric. We're here to have a plan and execute on it. We're here to retire in 9 years ...

 What starts out as a quiet week continues to be rather quiet. The Euro has lost ground to the USD overnight, but for our purposes, we are still waiting for a setup before we enter into the market.   I was hoping for a little price action overnight, but that was not the case after all. The way the charts are coming together today gives me a feeling that if there is a trade, it wont be until late in the afternoon.           No trade = no risk Or to say it differently...           Nothing ventured, nothing gained I am in the process of analyzing where we are at in the long term market trend.  Look for that report later this week. Until Then... Song of the day Volume 8 Do You Feel Like We Do (Live) - Peter Frampton

 Turns out we did get one last trade in Friday afternoon that brought us 6 PIPs.  Not bad for a week filled with uncertainty.  Going into Sunday / Monday, there is no scheduled market moving news to be concerned with/  That does not mean that we don't keep an eye out for that Black Swan that might come along. Due to a shortage of time as of this writing, off the top of my head doing the quick math. we made a 3.3% increase last week. The goal was 2.5%, so with a 0.8% over expectation, we are ahead of our numbers. Position size will increase sometime in October, and then December after that. SONG OF THE DAY VOL #7 Planet of the Bass (feat. DJ Crazy Times & Ms. Biljana Electronica) by Kyle Gordon

Bring this week to a close is important so that we can continue with backtesting and recharge for next week.   The Fed put out a statement today that they have NOT ruled out further rate hikes in order to achieve their target of 2% inflation. As the UAW strike lingers on, there is a balance that is being struck between big corporations and the consumer.  As the strike lingers on, the edge that is being balanced gets sharpened to that of a razors edge.  The importance of the Fed pausing is important because that will allow external factors that the Fed does not control to have a chance to affect inflation.  Oil production being cut by OPEC, Union Strike at the Auto Makers, Natural Disasters, etc, are all examples of external factors. Not to mention the Writers Strike in Hollywood as all of these play an important role in our economy today.   Understand this, if we did not have the writers strike at the same time we are having the UAW strike, there would...

 So far this has been a good week.   All trades are winning trades, the markets have not been "X Deviations" from the norm, and no markets have collapsed. We have another trade entered this afternoon (Ok, at HIGH NOON). Note our signals to get in.   We're looking to be out of this with 7 PIPS by 5PM. More updates to come...   Song of the Day VOLUME #5 Sammy Hagar - Winner Takes It All https://www.shazam.com/track/5915376/winner-takes-it-all

 I know there is a question coming and that is, "Is this Algo or manual trades?" The answer is that these are all very well planned out manual trades.   Each trade has between 3 - 5 hours of consideration before a position is placed. When a position is identified, we then use an EA to give us the best trade execution.   However, these trades are not "Fully Automated".  The problems that are encountered are too numerous to account for in a production environment. Besides, I can give facts instead of excuses when a manual trade is made.

 Admittedly,  when price keeps going the other way, you get nervous.  Even though the DATA shows a high chance of a positive expectation, it's perfectly human to be nervous. BUT, if you test the system, and follow the system, you will have success      Just like today. Done trading for the day.  Will reset at 5PM. Random Song of the Day Vol#4 Issue#2 https://www.shazam.com/track/40599907/99-problems Thanks Jay!

 Looks like we have a Fed Day today, AND, we have another position setting up this morning. Again, a tight, rangebound overnight, but I see the trading Gods (Is there such a thing) are giving a nice setup to run with... And of course... Song Of The Day Volume #4 https://www.shazam.com/track/419213/new-jack-hustler-ninos-theme

  If I were Charlie Sheen... I'd Be WINNING... Instead, I'm just "Take Profit" Just under 5 hours. Taking the rest of the day off... Not that there is much of it left.   at 5PM Est, we'll reset the charts and wait for CCI to hit +100 Until Then Stuck In The Middle With You (Re-Recorded) by Stealers Wheel  https://www.shazam.com/track/ 54570865/stuck-in-the-middle- with-you-re-recorded?referrer= share

 U.S. HOUSING STARTS have posted lower than expected forecast. Again, this is another indicator that the American Economy is shifting gears...   What does this mean for the Global Markets?  How will this affect Currencies? A wise man, and a fist full of cheap wall street guys agree on this...  One number does not indicate a trend. Housing is cyclical, and it is affected by the weather.   Winter, Hurricane, Summer, Flood, Spring, Etc...  I believe that there will be a group correlation experienced at some point regarding these numbers.   But, it's still just a tad too far out say what this number is going to tell us for the long term.   What about our trade today? Backtesting has shown that there is a 1/195 chance that this trade will go more than 100 PIPs against us. Additionally, there is a 75% chance that this will close before 5PM Eastern. To express the market trend in a different way, reference the chart below: That last candle...

 Happy Double Shot Tuesday to Ya! Looking at our Hourly Chart, we have a great set up anticipated for the next hour of the day. CCI is showing overbought and that gives our setup for 10 AM Eastern. Song of the Day Vol. #3  Double shot Twofer Tuesday           Fancy Like (feat. Kesha) by Walker Hayes & Kesha  https://www.shazam.com/track/ 583802451/fancy-like-feat- kesha?referrer=share           X Gon' Give It To Ya by DMX  https://www.shazam.com/track/ 210392038/x-gon-give-it-to-ya? referrer=share ----- UPDATE ----- Again, to use, and define an Adjective. Slippage https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zh2L-J9j1xM We wanted to get in at the TOP of the hour as trade execution is critical.  However, from the time that this error occurred to the time I was able to get in front of the computer to investigate, the slippage although DID occur, it was not enough to have a negative affect on this trade. We are sti...

Tight is the adjective that some to mind after last nights... rather this mornings trade.  The trade went in at 6:00 AM and lasted a whole 45 minutes for a TP and an HC.    (HC?? What's that? It's called a Hair Cut). Original target was for 5 PIPS, however, I think we got eaten up by the spread.   My numbers show a 3.6 PIP TP, There was CAD news at 6AM that might have given us some headaches, but we will note this for next time. The market is tight right now.  Tighter than a pair of Jordache Jeans in 1983. It's been in a 25 PIP Spread all night.   I believe we have Liquidity, The Fed Decision, and last weeks EUR/USD Tare to thank for this.  I'm expecting a little movement with the TIP at 3PM,   However, Trading for the rest of the day is complete. A win is a win. Speaking of 1983... well, 1988 actually.. Song of the Day... Vol #2. Seventeen by Winger Seventeen by Winger  https://www.shazam.com/track/ 6047616/seventeen...

 Not much of anything has changed from Friday to Today. We are still holding firm waiting for that CCI to get past +100. As we wait, we find ourselves staring down on an unprecedented strike on the part of the BIG 3 Auto Makers. Demands are high. and I have to say, not all of their demands give the appearance of being unreasonable.   Abolishing the Two Tier System and a 40% pay increase.  There is the Shock and Awe effects from those demands. On one hand if you take them for literal face value. it could be considered a shock to the economy...  Suddenly 150,000 people can all now afford big screen TV's for x-mas if their demands are met. BUT, and it's a big...but...  If you look at this as a proverbial demand, say for instance, it's intended as a huge wakeup call for big corps to get their act together and start to make fair wages viable for the work that todays environment demands, it could lead to an interesting fall season. A good wage for a days work. Ho...

  Success Comes in the middle of the night some times.   Yesterday we discussed the next trade, and at 5AM its time in the sun came around early.  We used the secondary account (the one with the bigger spread) to take this trade. Trade duration was about 89 minutes.   With a TP of 6 PIPS. As you see, we entered the trade when the CCI pulled back from +100. Monday we will have the Primary account back in play since liquidity will be at less of a premium. And, as expected, all of the numbers came in better than expected as relating to the financial news sans the  Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. That number came in a little softer than expected, however, its a survey of 500 people...  Unsure how that cross section of Society is derived, but, it gave us our number. What we are looking for next week? 1: CCI to trend past -100, and then watch for the pullback.    2: WED Fed Funds Rate.   Currently at 5.50, expected to hold at tha...

 IT has been called to attention that past performance is not a predictor of future performance. Well, if everything were that predictable, then Laze' fair would not be applicable. If we look at the following chart, we can see that there was quire a run to the positive for the USD. Whoever said the USD was in decline must have looked at a different chart. When your country racks up debt, but you still have a strong currency, you are more inclined to focus on the numbers rather than the "NEWS" behind it. What are we looking at for the next move? Looking at the bottom area of the chart, it is the CCI (14).  As of this writing, we're looking at -70. I'm looking for the next entry for when the CCI is over +100.  From there we will plan our next trade. Another interesting find.    Using the same broker for two different accounts, I made an interesting observation: Account #1 Account #2 Different spreads.... Same account pricing plans, different spreads. I'll be mak...

Entries and Exits I am hoping to address a few items of question over the next seven days. 1 - Trading Rules 2 - Entries and Exits 3 - The Audience 4 - Pronouns 5 - The Current Trade It's a lot of real estate to cover, but please be patient. Lets start with #5: The Current Positions: Short AUD/USD 0.67292 Short EUR/USD 1.05881 After dealing with these for over a weekend, TP has been set to about 5 pips. Carried interest on these does provide for a small level of income, but for the size of the positions it would be more beneficial to make daily trades than it would be to hold a carry trade for any long period of time. The goal is to exit from these trades as fast a possible and as heap as possible. A few ways to do that would be to take the daily interest made and reduce the position size accordingly. Another way would be to DCA the position (Dollar Cost Average) to make it more manageable.   I think we will see how a few days into the week reflect upon the account before...

  USD/JPY As predicted, following a highly probable trade yields favorable results. DAILY ACCOUNT STATS TAKE PROFIT on trade:19 PIP PRIMARY ACCOUNT: increase of 10.6% YTD This Friday the 20th looks to be a busy trading day with possible moves but with limited liquidity given the fact that Europe will be closed for the weekend.  Unfortunately , if I had to make a prediction, I would have to say that we can expect the DOW and S&P futures to show lower for Europe's market open on Sunday night.  It seems at every turn, companies that we thought had a solid footing in the markets are reporting layoffs,  Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Netflix. The trickle down effect affects everyone at some point.   If a worker at an Amazon Warehouse gets laid off, he can't take his wife out for dinner, and the server wont get that tip, as a result, the server is no longer able to buy that 88" flat screen TV from Best Buy, and the cycle continues. However, the key word i...

  Reasons to Follow Your Trading System Anyone who has traded for any length of time can drown on and on about how great their system is and how disciplined they are when it comes to trading, however, to talk about it is one thing, to illustrate it is another. For example, and this is a real world example. Based on our trading system that is based on extensive back testing, we knew where to place our TP.   Price action for the day took us up to 1.08827 on the EUR/USD, however, out TP was set at 1.08876. A difference of 4.9 pips.  As the chart below shows, the candle at the top most point what the high for the day. The significands of this is that it was not luck, it was research that made this possible.   By looking at the historically significant entry and exit points of what would determined as a Highly Probable Trade, we were able to use our data and research to make a profit of 16 PIPS.  While that may not seem like a lot, when you look at the over...

 BIG NEWS DAY Always so many moving parts to consider...   With the pervious post in mind, add into that a big news day globally. Things to keep in mind to plan your trades around.   One of those being a FED FUNDS RATE announcement. If you want to trade on the news, you have to be ready for anything... Literally.

POSITION REALITIVE TO TARGET When we talk about our a position, there are several factors to be mindful of: 1 - Where the entry has been placed 2 - The size 3 - Planned exit (For a loss or for a gain) Once into a position, you track its progress, and then if the position goes longer than expected, you have to do some homework... First thing to do is to check your trading plan, or system.   What are the rules?  Have you been following the rules?  DID you follow the rules when you entered into the position? Secondly, Did you back test to determine what the maximum deviation has been for the system that you are running?  If the answer is "NO", then you need do perform that task before going any further.   If you already have and you have determined that you are still within the parameters you have set out, then proceed on... Thirdly, Where is the trend?  The  Trend is your friend! That Third one catches up a lot of people when determining where ...